Housing is toast for years and prices are in a scary free-fall. Top 2006 house prices will return to 2003 prices. In some cases; much lower. In the previously hottest housing markets, retail prices increased +100% from 2003 to 2006. Guess what? Now they go down as much as they went up. In some cases even lower. One analyst figures 10,000,000 homes are foreclosed with keys returned to lenders in 2008. In 2009, it gets even worse.

States, cities, towns, villages and counties go bankrupt by the thousands. Fire and police will be laid-off or, fired. Muni-bonds default as there’s no tax income for interest payments. Homeless people multiply by the millions and food banks and welfare agencies are overrun with unfilled demands. Crime skyrockets as big city gangs run rampant without an effective police force. Urban fires will be more common and utilities are shut-off by the thousands for non-payment.

The federal government will install martial law, capital controls, and close banks for a spell while the armed forces are overrun with applicants by those needing food and a bed. Many cities become uninhabitable due to crime, disease and neglect. Large parts of Detroit have already returned to the wild with coyotes and other unusual birds and critters living in burned out homes and huge vacant land parcels where stately homes once stood. In lieu of valueless dollars, rural people in particular will use trading and goods barter instead of paper cash. There are two million guns in the United States and they are going to be used on criminals, to settle old grudges and the cops who will not be able to cope.

Those reliving the 20 year’s ago economic fairy tale will suffer the most. Those with the ability to substantially reduce their standard of living will do better. Farmers with an independent existence (Think Amish) will see no changes at all). They are self-serving independents and need zero help from outsiders. In fact their lives ought to significantly improve as the “English” as Amish call them get lost.

Many will give up cars entirely, moving to small towns or, villages growing gardens and walking to all needs. Bikes, walking, motorcycles, and horses become the newer method of transportation for many. Several will grow to like it as health-exercise improves and stress melts away. Lower expectations shall serve many well. Those unable to adjust or, change jump-off buildings, go nuts or, cope badly.

Will there be a total departure from our modern way of life. No, but societies including America will see changes. Energy conservation becomes a religion and wastefulness of all kinds shall disappear. Smart people see these things coming and shall quietly and unobtrusively prepare. Low key is best while flash, dash and rah-rah materialism turns passé.

Are we overstating this problem? Maybe, but what if we aren’t? Think about 1921-1922 Germany. Think about post war Germany in 1945-1946 when millions of German citizens starved to death. Think about Argentina, Brazil and other hyperinflative events. Think about Zimbabwe with thousand’s percent inflation- right now! Watch Asia and Europe tank first this fall of 2008 with the U.S. falling in late 2009.

We suggest wise precious metals traders with their friends and families could make the best of this forecast eliminating most of these getting-by problems before they’re a crisis. You would be amazed at how little you need for a happy productive life once 95% of the useless materialistic crap is dumped. I once lived in a 5,600 square foot home with six bedrooms and four bath rooms and hated it. Now my 1,000 square foot townhouse is too small but not by much. Simplify your life, make some excellent gold and silver trades and you’ll smile with satisfaction, not frown with fear or, portray a “Deer in the Headlights Stare” like the Hank-Ben duo. Their sleepless worrisome example proves money isn’t everything. Those guys are scared witless. – Traderrog

Roger Wiegand
Editor Trader Tracks Newsletter
& The Rog Blog at webeatthestreet.com